Spanish Open betting guide
Wednesday 30th April 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
There's no more unsociable early starts for the rest of the summer as finally the European Tour returns to the mainland. In a fortnight, the big-money events start in Ireland and the UK, but first we have two Southern European national Opens, starting in Spain this week to be followed by Italy.
Real Club de Sevilla is making its first appearance as the venue for this event, though we have seen it before when hosting the 2004 Seville Open and World Cup. On the first of those occasions, there was a distinct advantage to the longer hitters, shown most clearly by a victory for Ricardo Gonzalez - a player who is always long off the tee, but far from always straight.
Its been toughened up since though with the rough now described as penal, placing a greater emphasis on driving accuracy. However, some of the bias towards length may persist, because weeks of heavy rain have left little run on softened fairways. The fairways are pretty wide, so my guess is that those who hit it long and straight will enjoy an advantage, with par-5 performance slightly more influential than most weeks.
This likely emphasis on long, straight driving very much plays to the strengths of a pair near the head of the market, CHARL SCHWARTZEL and JOHAN EDFORS. With Schwartzel, I'm having to break a fairly general principle about avoiding defending champions. Its always a concern that the extra pressure, media attention and obligations might have a negative effect, but Schwartzel has such a strong case that an each-way bet at 14/1 cannot be ignored.
As I've written before, Schwartzel is a world star in the making, and this could well be the season he starts to really make an impact. He looked on the verge of winning in Estoril before a disastrous final two holes, but nevertheless that was his fifth top-7 in his last six starts. In an average Euro Tour field of this nature, I make him the man to beat.
Edfors is another who has looked a winner waiting to happen for months. Though he first shot to prominence by winning three times during the 2006 season, in my view his golf this year has been more accomplished and consistent without winning yet. He's made the top-10 in five from seven 2008 events, usually registering extremely impressive long-game stats in the process. Very long and pretty straight, I can see him shooting very low here if the course is fairly soft following the rain.
Splitting that pair at the head of the market is 2006 champion Niclas Fasth. Despite generally keeping a mid-division profile in the States recently, he is usually a factor in this part of the world. The Ryder Cup player has an impressive win ratio, especially in Southern Europe and must always be afforded the utmost respect at this lower level.
Darren Clarke couldn't have been a more popular winner of Sunday's event in China, and he could come into the argument again. Certainly Darren has plenty of previous form in Spain, but even at his best was only a rare winner, which makes him hard to fancy back-to-back. It wouldn't be hard either to make a case for sometimes high-class players such as Simon Dyson and Paul McGinley.
Naturally there's a strong home contingent, with four Spaniards amongst the first dozen market leaders. Miguel-Angel Jiminez is shortest after his Augusta heroics, but immediately returned to the sort of lacklustre form in China that has plagued him this year. Alejandro Canizares, who has been plying his trade in much stronger company across the Atlantic lately, could be dangerous back in his homeland.
If he can produce a long-game display equivalent to when grabbing a place for us on his last effort, then Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano is bound to go close. However, as Castano has a surprisingly moderate record at home, I prefer the chances of his compatriot JOSE-MANUEL LARA. Six of Lara's last ten events in Spain have produced finishes of 9th or better. He did finish down the field here in 2004, but the heavier rough and extra emphasis on driving strongly suggests this will now be a good course for him. And good recent form was confirmed with four solid rounds just off the pace last time in Estoril.
Similarly, SOREN HANSEN's consistently impressive long game suggests he could represent each-way value at 45/1. The Dane is another who's been a bit out of his depth in the States recently, but his last two starts at European level have yielded finishes of 6th and 14th. Having made the top-10 here in 2004 when the course was arguably less suitable, I doubt Hansen will be too far away on Sunday.
And given his recent form, ROBERT DINWIDDIE could be a decent outside bet. 3rd behind Clarke in Shanghai was his best effort since arriving on the European Tour and his second top-6 in four starts. He's already shown a capacity to retain his best form for a few weeks when winning back-to-back on last year's Challenge Tour, and is therefore worth keeping on side for now at 80/1.
Good Luck!
