China Open betting guide
Wednesday 16th April 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
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Due to its post-Masters position in the schedule, this field lacks strength in depth compared to other similar co-sanctioned events. In fact the only Augusta competitor on show is China's leading player, WEN-CHONG LIANG. Besides him, not only are there hardly any top Europeans but even the top Asian players such as Jaidee, Randhawa, Marksaeng and Singh are absent.
That would seem to point to a great opportunity for Graeme McDowell to win his second Asian event in a row. McDowell is the only player here with a serious chance of making the Ryder Cup side, and against this lot 14/1 isn't a bad price. However, having had to wait so long for a third win it may be asking too much to go in again so quickly.
Not unusually for the season so far, we have no course form to work from, as Beijing International is the fourth different venue in five years for this event. Inspection of the course suggests driving accuracy will be rewarded on a dry, firm layout with plenty of hazards. And with several long par-4s, plus four par-5s that are borderline reachable in two, anyone who can drive it long and straight should benefit.
One player with form in the region, and far beyond for that matter is David Howell. Eighteen months ago, Howell was a rising star at the highest level but persistent injury problems have set him back. It was therefore pleasing to see him return to something close to his best last time out in Portugal and on that form would have a massive chance. I'd like to see him repeat that a couple more times though before parting with cash.
Another player worth watching this week is Korean teenager Seung-yul Noh. Already carrying a big reputation from junior golf, Noh has made an immediate impact on the pro-scene by finishing runner-up on his first couple of Asian Tour events. Surely though its too early for a Korean teenager to win a European Tour event, and if I was planning on backing a youngster the likes of Joost Luiten and Oliver Fisher make more appeal.
Rather than having what I would consider extremely risky, speculative bets on this lot though, I prefer the chances of five players at 33/1+, all of whom have rock-solid place credentials at least. Liang is the most confident selection. This is the biggest event in China, their national Open, so it stands to reason that their best player will be busting a gut to win and enjoy strong support. And Liang is not just a force in Asia. On his penultimate start he registered a piece of form on the PGA Tour that would almost certainly be good enough if replicated here. Very few of this field, and even then only on occasion, have ever registered a better piece of form in the States than Liang's 12th in New Orleans.
Though still lacking consistency, this week's demands could bring about a third good performance in China from ROSS FISHER. Following his last visit in November, Ross must have left China with mixed emotions. On the one hand, runner-up in the lucrative HSBC Champions Trophy against a world-class field undoubtedly represented his best performance to date. Then again, his cock-up on 18th to hand Mickelson a play-off lifeline will go down as one of the worst final hole disasters in recent years. Still, in two of his last three starts against similarly elite company, Fisher has held his own, and now good driving is expected to be rewarded, this easier competition presents the ideal opportunity for a second European Tour win.
All of my other three selections in China are consistent characters who have form in the country or region. MARK BROWN for instance has been one of the most reliable players in this part of the world over recent months. On his last eleven starts, he's made the top-10 six times and won twice. With stats like that, 40/1 and more to the point 10/1 about a top-5 finish looks huge.
Usually I'm loathe to back defending champions, because of the extra pressure and media commitments, but MARKUS BRIER is simply too big to ignore as an each-way 40/1 bet. Seeing as he's won his national Austrian Open three times, he seems to thrive on big expectations. Generally reliable and often under-rated, Brier looked a likely imminent winner when registering consecutive top-15 finishes on the first two of the three recent events in Southern Europe. He can be forgiven failure in the third too, as he had previously struggled on that quirky course at Oitavos Dunes.
Finally, given his consistency in recent months, SCOTT STRANGE could well break his Euro Tour duck soon. He very nearly won the lucrative Johnnie Walker Classic before a late wobble left the spoils to Mark Brown, but that form was on a par with the 7th placed finish behind some world class players in Abu Dhabi. He's won five professional titles since 2002, so as he plays in more of these co-sanctioned events, he seems certain to get more good opportunities.
