Italian Open Betting Guide
Wednesday 7th May 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
ITALIAN OPEN
Whatever the merits of the debate concerning whether this week's Players Championship deserves parity with the four Majors, there is one tell-tale sign that this isn't a Major week. If there were a Major being played, then there would be no chance of a field this competitive assembling in a different continent for what is a very interesting tournament in its own right.
Traditionally one of the less prestigious staging posts of the summer schedule, as the Italian Open has become a regular fixture they've increasingly been able to attract quality players. Even if Europe's very best are away, the top of the market is packed with regular contenders at this level and some that have achieved, or at least possess the potential to achieve, much more in a higher grade.
We do have plenty of course form to work from, as the Milan venue is retained for the 5th consecutive year. The course, Castello di Tolcinasco G & CC, is one of the easiest of the year making very low scoring a certainty. Driving distance has rarely been especially important here, rather the name of the game here is positional driving to set up birdie opportunities, and then making plenty of them. Even in the two of the last four years where the tournament has been reduced to 54 holes, the winning scores were -16 and -19.
The market is wide open too, with in-form home favourite Francesco Molinari leading the way at 18/1. I can understand Molinari starting favourite on the basis of home support plus 1st and 3rd in the last two years. Any other week though, and he would be at least twice these odds so whilst respecting him, I can't bring myself to recommend him on value grounds.
Charl Schwartzel makes less appeal than usual, with two relatively moderate previous efforts to his name here. It may be that he's not ideally suited to a course with so many dog-legs. This may also explain why Robert Karlsson, increasingly competitive on the world stage, has missed all three cuts in Milan. Bradley Dredge has good course form, but hasn't played for over a month.
Which makes my main selection a toss-up between two players who've made a small impact on the higher grade PGA Tour recently, Nick Dougherty and ANDERS HANSEN. Last year's renewal was probably my most frustrating near-miss of the season, when Dougherty somehow contrived to lose what appeared a cast-iron grip on the trophy over the closing holes. That wasn't his only frustrating day by any means, which is why he remains hard to back at fairly short prices. Nevertheless, I expect he'll be there or thereabouts.
Hansen gives me slightly more confidence, having finished runner-up on this course in 2005 and 2006. Its easy to forgive a disastrous Masters debut, as he certainly won't be the last to do that. Forgetting that, I liked his previous efforts in Houston and particularly Doral, where 12th place amongst the elite was a fine achievement.
With low scoring the order of the day, it could pay to get with sometimes birdie-machine ALEXANDER NOREN. Euan Murray on Sky continues to refer to Noren's outstanding form when practising with Martin Kaymer over the winter, and there's much from his tournament golf this year to suggest that he is one of the likeliest first-time winners around. He's certainly knocking on the door, with 4th in Andalucia prior to Sunday's 10th. That position may not truly reflect how well the Swede played in Spain too, as he started poorly and blew much cash on the final hole.
Perhaps Noren's closest rival for that first-time winner-in-waiting tag is OLIVER WILSON, who was a model of consistency during the latter stages of the 'Far East Swing'. His last three Euro starts have produced finishes of 11th, 8th and 2nd, in addition to the runners-up spot in December's South African Open. And having hit three consecutive 68s for 14th on his Milan course debut last year, Wilson must feel confident of further improvement considering that recent forward momentum.
Several other players can boast both recent and course form. It would be no surprise to see previous Italian Open runners-up Thomas Levet or Markus Brier go one better. And if he wasn't carrying the burden of defending champion status, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano would almost certainly have made the staking plan.
One former champion I do rate as a decent each-way bet is STEVE WEBSTER at 50/1. That 2005 victory represented a huge milestone for Webster, his first victory in over a decade on the tour. Since then though he's looked a more confident player and a more convincing finisher, with the memory of last year's stroll in Portugal still fairly fresh in the memory. We have to forgive a missed cut last week, but on his penultimate start Webster's long game looked in fine nick on his way to 9th place.
Italy has brought the best out of GREGORY HAVRET before, another player who loves this sort of target golf. Back in 2001, he landed a big shock in winning this event, and he very nearly won again on this course in 2004. The key to Havret is picking the three or four really good weeks he's going to have in a year, as he's never looked like becoming consistent. But as he showed Mickelson and co when winning the Scottish Open at Loch Lomond, at his best he's a class act. In fact just three starts ago, the Frenchman finished a creditable 15th in the World Golf Championships, a repeat of which would probably win this.
Good Luck!
ADVISED BETS
ITALIAN OPEN
2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 22/1 (CORALS, SKYBET, VCBET)
2pts ew ALEXANDER NOREN @ 28/1 (CORALS, TOTE, 30/1 PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew OLIVER WILSON @ 33/1 (SKYBET, HILLS)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew GREG HAVRET @ 55/1 (BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES, 66/1 LADBROKES)
PLAYERS' CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 60/1 (SKYBET, SPORTINGBET)
TOP AMERICAN
1.5pts ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew JUSTIN LEONARD @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERAL, 55/1 PADDY POWER)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 75/1 PADDY POWER)
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
2008 VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
10pts HENRIK STENSON @ 7/1
4pts PAUL CASEY @ 14/1
USPGA TOUR MONEY LIST
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1
1pt ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 80/1
MAJORS SPECIAL
20pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN US OPEN @ 11/4
20pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN EXACTLY THREE MAJORS @ 12/1
2007/2008 STATS: +293pts
N.B. I shall be on holiday for the next fortnight.
