Wachovia Championship betting guide
Wednesday 30th April 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
8 of the world's top 10 head to North Carolina for an event fast establishing itself as one of the premier titles to win. With the course, Quail Hollow, of Majors standard, the only thing missing is defending champion Tiger Woods, who is absent following knee surgery.
Examination of past results here show that its the type of course which separates the men from the boys and produces leaderboards packed with big-names. Four of the five previous Wachovia champions had previously won a Major. And in the last three years since it cemented its status as one of the best events of the season, ensuring a stellar field, only four of the seventeen players to have grabbed a top-5 spot started the event at more than 50/1.
Inaccuracy is severely penalised at Quail Hollow, and a world-class short-game is essential. Furthermore, the course has been made firmer and faster which will add to the Majors feel, though there are thunderstorms forecast that could remove its worst sting. Driving distance has proved irrelevant here previously, with greens in regulation and par-5 performance probably the most important stats to follow.
Tiger's absence must be a good thing for betting purposes. The market appears wide-open in comparison to the norm, with Phil Mickelson favourite at 10/1. Mickelson has some good form on this course, making the top-7 in three out of four years, and at his best would have a massive chance to capitalise on this rare Tiger-free opportunity. I'll find him hard to back though until he's overcome recent putting woes that have cost him dear several times this season.
Though I'm banking on some rain arriving at the weekend, I much prefer the chances of 2005 champ VIJAY SINGH. Vijay has been bang in contention throughout three of the five runnings of this tournament, and will surely go close again if retaining his recent long game brilliance. He went into Augusta on the back of two top-3s at Doral and Bay Hill, and played better in the Masters than the 14th position suggests. Not for the first time, the putter failed him badly that weekend, not least when ruining a certain top-10 with four putts from short range on the 70th hole. So while I will be concerned if the greens are extremely fast, if the rain comes that one negative may not be such an issue.
Almost identical comments apply to Adam Scott, another who suffers on fast greens. Having won his second event of the year with a brilliant display over the closing holes on Sunday, I could very easily have gone in for back-to-back wins. Asides the putting, he looks every inch an improver and potential challenger to Woods. However, I'd rather wait a week for Sawgrass.
The other leading contenders I fancy are Americans JIM FURYK and STEVE STRICKER. Furyk's monotonous accuracy and classy short-game are the perfect ticket for Quail Hollow, and explain his 2005 win and subsequent runners-up spot the following year. Though slightly below his best at stages this year, he's looked right back to form recently in finishing 2nd at Doral and 4th in the Heritage. Another high finish looks on the cards.
It has been a great disappointment to jump aboard the Steve Stricker each-way bandwagon at the worst possible time. As I've written in recent weeks, the world no.4 has been relentlessly consistent in grabbing a share of the place money since producing an amazing comeback to golf's top table. When we last backed him on his penultimate start, 11th was another decent effort but ruined by one very poor round. Given his wider consistency, that and a fairly predictable Augusta failure must be forgiven. 30/1 looks a decent each-way price considering only Woods finished ahead of Stricker last year.
Another obvious home contender is Stewart Cink, a model of consistency with top-3s in four of last eight events and 5th here last year. He's only overlooked because of a repeated lack of confidence down the stretch. There's no such worries on that score for last year's 3rd, Rory Sabbatini. The concern with him is a wider lack of form this year. Geoff Ogilvy is as ever afforded the utmost respect, and only rejected on price grounds.
Leading Europeans Donald, Garcia and Rose make little appeal on recent evidence, but if Masters hero Trevor Immelman has stopped celebrating yet then he could be a factor. He was runner-up in 2006 when in his best form, so a repeat of his Augusta driving performance would take him close. And excellent prospect Antony Kim made my shortlist after finishing 5th on his course debut in 2007.
Rather than any of those, I prefer a couple of very capable outsiders. Firstly, FRED COUPLES at 125/1. In his heyday, Quail Hollow would have been ideal for a class act like Freddie. At this stage in his career, any bet can only be speculative but there's much to suggest there is still a win left in 'Boom Boom'. 4th on his penultimate start, there was considerable betting confidence in Couples going into the Masters, especially since he said his troublesome back felt better than it had in years. A missed cut there was a disappointment, but forgiveable given the previous week's effort.
And JOHN SENDEN must always respected on courses that reward tee-to-green accuracy. The Australian is a mainstay near the top of the greens in regulation statistics, which explains last year's top-10 finish. He's already finished 2nd at a big price this season, and has continued to record respectable figures since the PODS Championship in March.
