Players Champs Betting Guide
Wednesday 7th May 2008
By Paul Krishnamurty
THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
If ever you wanted an illustration of the extent of Tiger Woods' dominance, just look at this week's odds for the '5th Major', the Players' Championship from Sawgrass. Ever since he arrived on the scene, we've become regularly used to the favourite starting at less than 3/1, indeed less than 6/4 in the Masters. But having undergone knee surgery, Tiger is missing from this year's Sawgrass extravaganza and what we are left with is an enthralling tournament with the favourite starting at 12/1, an unprecedented level for a 'Major'.
The fact that Sawgrass is the venue just adds to the spectacle. No American course offers the same excitement as the legendary Pete Dye-designed stadium venue, home to the most exciting finish in golf. Those betting in-running can expect to see the usual dramatic leader board changes as players pass through the par-5 16th, the infamous island par-3 17th, and finally the ultra-tough long par-4 18th where water threatens both drive and approach.
Its expected to play at its toughest, firm and fast with no rain forecast. This will strongly emphasise accuracy from tee to green, as always on a course where the greens are small, and hazards brutal. If the wind gets up this becomes a very tough test. The beauty of Sawgrass though, is that unlike brutal US Open course for example, there are regular birdie and eagle opportunities, all of which combines to produce rapid fluctuations in fortunes for the leaders.
As defending champion and leading player in Woods' absence, Phil Mickelson inevitably starts favourite, but in my view the man they all have to beat this week is ADAM SCOTT. I was seriously impressed with Scott's resilience when winning the Byron Nelson a fortnight ago. His manner of victory was reminiscent of Tiger, and further evidence that this could be the year Scott finally comes of age. Remember that prior to that latest win, he'd hit a final day 61 to land the Qatar Masters.
He's clearly on fire at the moment, and a second Players' title would precipitate a bandwagon effect ahead of the US Open. As it happens, I'm still not convinced about Scott's suitability for Majors, but Sawgrass is a different matter. He's already won here in 2004, and made the top-8 on two other occasions. Whereas so many other top players struggle at Sawgrass, Scott thrives at this test.
Mickelson's win last year wasn't as obvious as it would seem, as previously Sawgrass had never looked his course. I suspect it was borne out of the fact that Mickelson was peaking this time last year, and rather doubt the same can be said this time around. Still I'd rather back Lefty than a whole host of other obvious contenders, who rarely produce their best here. Vijay Singh and Retief Goosen have only ever got into contention once each at Sawgrass, Ernie Els has never bettered 8th place. Even local man Jim Furyk has only made the top-10 twice in well over a decade, though to be fair both have been top-4 and in his last four tries.
Nevertheless, they're not records that inspire. In fact besides Scott, the only other players amongst the market leaders that makes any appeal are twice runner-up Padraig Harrington and in-form Stewart Cink. Cink has been a model of consistency this year without winning, and will surely correct that if he continues in this vein of form. However, that form is more than factored in to odds of 25/1 which are as short as I've ever seen him.
The same goes for Harrington, who played well in 5th on his last start at the Masters. I'd love to see Pod crack on and win more Majors, more US Tour events, but at just 22/1 does he really have twice the prospects of fellow Europeans like HENRIK STENSON, or another former Sawgrass runner-up, Luke Donald?
Stenson made such a fine impact on his 2006 course debut that he must be worth keeping on side. Its interesting that Stenson, who leads the Order of Merit, is rated equally to his struggling European colleague Sergio Garcia. This is madness in my view. Bar Harrington, Stenson rates the likeliest European winner whereas the Spaniard is a no-hoper. Rather like Scott, Stenson's ability to butcher Sawgrass' par-5s is a major asset.
Another European who could come into the picture at a nice price is LEE WESTWOOD. We have to overlook some disappointing finishing positions this century, many of which occurred when Lee was well below his best. But back in the late '90s, Westwood finished 5th and 6th at Sawgrass and looked a likely future winner of this event. He could be very interesting now, at last returned to those previous levels of form. With a little luck, Westwood could easily have bettered his 11th place at Augusta, and in my view Sawgrass is a much more favourable course.
Arguably the best emerging American player, SEAN O'HAIR made a huge impact last year and has improved since. The stats say he came 11th, but in reality he was only just second best to Mickelson for the first 70 holes. In the last couple of months O'Hair won the PODS Championship, finished third at Bay Hill and an impressive 14th on his Masters debut. After that lot, it would no surprise to see O'Hair bury last year's disappointments.
Amongst the numerous top nationality markets, the one that sparked my interest is for 'Top American'. Only 10 of the first 26 in the betting are American, so its encouraging to see some attractive odds around in this restricted market. Furthermore, I'm not particularly afraid of the favourite here, Mickelson. I'm backing O'Hair in this market as well as to win the event, and the general rule must be to back any fancied Americans to beat their countrymen rather than the rest of the world.
Rather like Westwood, 1997 champion JUSTIN LEONARD is in his best form since around that period, which hopefully can produce a marked improvement on recent Sawgrass disappointments. A pair of triple-bogeys made his latest 19th placed finish look much worse than it should have been, and I'm prepared to persist with Leonard until he wins, or at least places again. He strikes me as the identikit Sawgrass winner - an experienced course specialist.
I also like former Masters champion ZACH JOHNSON here at 40/1. Zach has the perfect, consistently accurate game for Sawgrass, and has consequently finished 8th and 16th on two of his three visits. He's probably due a good week too, as generally speaking his game looks in the same form as last year when winning twice.
And having given us such a good run for our money last weekend, I must keep Sawgrass legend FRED COUPLES on side for another week. Apart from winning the Players' Championship, Couples has a hole in one on the 17th, and several other memorable moments here. Age shouldn't be a barrier either, as 48 year-old Fred Funk showed in 2005.
Finally in the same market, CHAD CAMPBELL is too big at up to 75/1. He finished 6th at Sawgrass back in 2003, but has surprisingly done little since. As a fine wind player, I would have expected him to prosper on this course. Perhaps now, having finished 2nd on the PGA Tour only last month, he can show his best once again.
Good Luck!
PLAYERS' CHAMPIONSHIP
3pts ew ADAM SCOTT @ 14/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE)
1.5pts ew HENRIK STENSON @ 40/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 66/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew LEE WESTWOOD @ 60/1 (SKYBET, SPORTINGBET)
TOP AMERICAN
1.5pts ew SEAN O'HAIR @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew JUSTIN LEONARD @ 33/1 (GENERAL)
1.5pts ew ZACH JOHNSON @ 40/1 (PADDY POWER, SKYBET)
1pt ew FRED COUPLES @ 50/1 (GENERAL, 55/1 PADDY POWER)
1pt ew CHAD CAMPBELL @ 66/1 (GENERAL, 75/1 PADDY POWER)
ITALIAN OPEN
2pts ew ANDERS HANSEN @ 22/1 (CORALS, SKYBET, VCBET)
2pts ew ALEXANDER NOREN @ 28/1 (CORALS, TOTE, 30/1 PADDY POWER)
1.5pts ew OLIVER WILSON @ 33/1 (SKYBET, HILLS)
1pt ew STEVE WEBSTER @ 50/1 (GENERAL)
1pt ew GREG HAVRET @ 55/1 (BETDIRECT, STAN JAMES, 66/1 LADBROKES)
LONG-TERM ALREADY ADVISED
2008 VOLVO ORDER OF MERIT
10pts HENRIK STENSON @ 7/1
4pts PAUL CASEY @ 14/1
USPGA TOUR MONEY LIST
BETTING WITHOUT TIGER WOODS
2pts ew KJ CHOI @ 33/1
1pt ew TREVOR IMMELMAN @ 80/1
MAJORS SPECIAL
20pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN US OPEN @ 11/4
20pts TIGER WOODS TO WIN EXACTLY THREE MAJORS @ 12/1
2007/2008 STATS: +293pts
N.B. I shall be on holiday for the next fortnight.
